In January, TV panel prices continued to decline, with 65-inch panel prices dropping to $170 and 75-inch panel prices falling to $270, the market selling price has fallen below total cost and is approaching cash cost.TV panel prices have fallen deeply and will probably stop falling by the end of the first quarter, led by restocking by brand-name manufacturers in March and April, said Xie Chin Yee, director of display research at Omdia.

On the other hand, the depreciation of the old generation production line below 8.5 generation has almost ended. Although the price dropped sharply before, the decline was rapidly converging at the end of last year. According to the quotation in January, most of them were still profitable.

Prices for medium - and small-size TV panels up to 55 inches slowed in the fourth quarter, but prices for larger panels such as 65 and 75 inches accelerated, dropping as much as $10 a month for the third straight month.Xie Qinyi said that the depreciation pressure of the 10.5 generation factory is not small. Taking the 65-inch as an example, the cash cost is about $160, while the total cost is about $250. According to the current 65-inch panel quotation of about $170 ~ $180, the price has fallen below the total cost and is closer to the cash cost.The 75-inch panel, at $270, has fallen below its total cost of $350 and is closer to its cash cost of $230.

The main products of the 10.5 generation plant are 65-inch and 75-inch TV panels. The price is getting closer and closer to the cash cost, and the pressure of loss is getting bigger and bigger. However, due to the high investment amount and depreciation pressure of the 10.5 generation new plant, the adjustment range of capacity utilization rate is quite limited.Panel manufacturers are trying to adjust their product lines to produce other sizes of TV and monitor panels through sheathing, hoping to reduce the supply of large-size TV panels and bring panel prices to a bottom as soon as possible.

At the end of last year, black Friday sales in North America and Singles day sales in China did not perform well, with black Friday sales declining by 5 to 6 percent compared to the previous year, Xie said.In addition to the impact of the pandemic, inflation has kept end prices high and depressed the market, which will directly affect the supply chain inventory adjustment in the first quarter of this year.

From the perspective of the panel factory, the inventory is still at a healthy level, but from the perspective of the access side, the inventory level is high, about 8 weeks. Due to the logistics difficulties, the terminal still has the inventory of high-priced panels in the third quarter, and it still needs some time to reduce the inventory.In March and April, brand factories will make inventory replenishment in the downstream, and the panel demand will increase. However, this is normal cargo pulling, not market demand growth, so the panel price will not rebound much in the second quarter.